医药生物行业2024年12月投资策略：持续推荐创新药械，并关注医疗设备投资机会

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector is "Outperform the Market" [18] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a structural transformation on the supply side, which is expected to lead to a new growth cycle by 2025. The proportion of companies reporting losses has increased since 2019, stabilizing above 30% this year. Leading companies have shown resilience during this industry clearing phase, gaining market share and enhancing competitiveness as the industry rebounds [19]. - The demand side shows stable growth in the pharmaceutical sector, with a trend towards upgrading demand. From 2019 to 2023, total health expenditure in China increased from 65,196 billion to 90,578 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 8.6%, surpassing nominal GDP growth. The volume of medical services provided by domestic medical institutions has also seen a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% during the same period [36]. - The introduction of a diversified payment system is expected to boost total health expenditure as a percentage of GDP. The proportion of medical insurance spending is anticipated to remain at 25-30%, with commercial health insurance, fiscal spending, and personal expenditure expected to increase in the coming years, benefiting innovative drugs, medical devices, and quality medical services [22]. Summary by Sections Monthly Performance Review - The pharmaceutical sector saw an overall increase of 2.15% in November, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.5% [30]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry's total revenue for January to October 2024 was 20,409.4 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [42]. Industry Data Tracking - The total income of the basic medical insurance fund (including maternity insurance) from January to October 2024 was 23,065.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.9% year-on-year [28]. - The retail sales of Western and Chinese medicine in the first nine months of 2024 reached 581.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [42]. Subsector Insights - The pharmaceutical commercial sector, chemical pharmaceuticals, and medical devices saw increases of 6.21%, 3.70%, and 0.92% respectively in November [49]. - The overall valuation level of the pharmaceutical sector is at a historical median, with the current PE (TTM) at 32.53, which is at the 54.99% percentile of the past five years [66]. Recent Key Report Review - In November 2024, 11 innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including five domestic and six imported products [5]. - The new national medical insurance drug list, effective from January 1, 2025, includes 91 new drugs, with 89 added through negotiation or bidding [84]. Coverage Company Profit Forecast and Valuation Table - Key companies such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital are highlighted with investment ratings of "Outperform the Market" and projected growth in net profits for 2024 and beyond [38][95][132].