读懂通胀系列（一）：走出“低价”，关注什么？

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - Current low price levels exert short-term pressure on the macro economy, with inflation becoming a recent market focus[1] - The real estate sector's output increase of 10,000 yuan leads to an economic consumption increase of 12,400 yuan, indicating a significant indirect impact on CPI[1] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The cyclical services related to housing account for 25% of the CPI, suggesting a strong correlation between housing prices and core CPI movements[6] - Since March 2023, CPI has entered a negative growth phase, highlighting the importance of housing price fluctuations on CPI[6] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently experiencing a negative feedback loop of "demand-price-inventory," with second and third-tier cities nearing price and transaction volume bottoms, while first-tier cities continue to see price declines[21] - The market consensus indicates that the rebound in real estate prices will take time, as the relationship between transaction volume and price changes shows a lag[21] Group 4: Policy Implications - The central economic work conference in December emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, controlling supply, and boosting demand to address low prices[6] - The transition from "strong expectations" to "weak realities" necessitates a focus on driving core CPI recovery through stabilizing real estate prices[6]