NHD(002946) 华龙证券·2024-12-27 06:46Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 22.1X for 2024, 18.4X for 2025, and 15.3X for 2026 [110] Core Views - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, aiming for double-digit revenue growth and a doubling of net profit margin over the next five years [10][110] - The company's low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt products are its core competitive advantages, contributing over 50% to its main business revenue [106][151] - The company has a strong ability to innovate and launch new products, with new products accounting for double-digit percentages of revenue [25][106] - The company's DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel has shown significant growth, contributing to the rapid growth of its low-temperature product categories [26][106] Company Overview - The company is a regional dairy leader, focusing on low-temperature products and implementing the "Fresh Cube" strategy to enhance profitability [104][115] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with Liu Chang and Liu Yonghao as the actual controllers, holding 65.07% and 15.61% of the shares respectively [3] - The company has achieved steady growth in revenue and profitability, with a gross margin of 29.09% and a net margin of 5.97% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.67pct and 1.20pct year-on-year [8][104] - The company has a nationwide presence through three rounds of acquisitions, focusing on low-temperature milk markets [121][129] Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to recover in 2025, with supply and demand for raw milk improving [20][148] - The industry is highly concentrated, with the top two players, Yili and Mengniu, holding 24.2% and 21.3% of the market share respectively [143] - The industry is expected to grow steadily, driven by increasing health awareness and technological advancements in dairy products [16][143] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong competitive advantage in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, with key products like "24 Hours" and "Weipin" achieving double-digit growth [30][151] - The company has a robust supply chain and cold chain logistics capabilities, supported by its parent company, New Hope Group [106][165] - The company's DTC channel, including home delivery, self-subscription, image stores, and e-commerce, has shown strong growth, with overall revenue increasing by over 15% in 2023 [169][170] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2024 is expected to reach 11.203 billion yuan, with a net profit of 553 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.42% [110][184] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been steadily increasing, with a gross margin of 29.09% and a net margin of 5.97% in the first three quarters of 2024 [8][104] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 16.58% in 2023 to 18.49% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [50][196]