2025年一季度A股投资策略：积极应变

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend stocks, infrastructure-related sectors, and growth technology opportunities in a fluctuating market environment [16][36][40] - It predicts a GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% for Q1 2025, driven by improvements in consumption and real estate sales [22][63] Infrastructure Sector - There is a strong seasonal effect in infrastructure construction starting from the Spring Festival to mid-March, presenting opportunities in engineering consulting, environmental equipment, and non-metallic materials [2][10] - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 6% in early 2025 due to improved local government financial conditions and increased fiscal space [10][16] Consumer Sector - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with an estimated impact of over 1 trillion yuan in consumer spending [9][42] - However, consumer confidence remains fragile, with a notable reliance on policy support for consumption recovery [3][40][65] - The report indicates that the average consumer propensity to spend has not improved significantly, remaining close to levels seen during the pandemic [41][65] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is showing signs of gradual improvement, with sales continuing to recover following policy adjustments made from September to November 2024 [50][54] - The report suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will see a continuation of this trend, although the extent of improvement may be limited [50][54] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a stable economic environment with a focus on policy-driven growth, particularly in the first quarter of 2025 [33][63] - It highlights the potential for a "red start" to the year, with policies aimed at stimulating consumption and infrastructure investment [63][64]