亚洲聚焦：全球150年债务激增的历史数据对中国有何借鉴意义（摘要）

Core Insights - The report highlights that despite efforts by Chinese policymakers to stabilize leverage since 2016, there has been a recent increase in leverage, with the non-financial debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 307% by the end of 2024 [3][29] - The analysis indicates that after significant debt booms, economies typically experience slower growth, lower inflation, and declining interest rates, which are critical features observed in the aftermath of large debt accumulation [13][15][42] Debt Growth and Economic Impact - China's debt growth is notably faster compared to other countries, with historical parallels drawn primarily to Japan, which had a similar speed of debt accumulation during a period when its income level was significantly higher than China's [4][6][34] - The report identifies that economic growth tends to decelerate towards the end of large debt booms, with a median real GDP growth rate approximately 2.5 percentage points lower than the average during the boom [13][40] - Inflation pressures typically decrease in the years following a debt boom, with rates falling by 1-2 percentage points within five years post-boom [13][49] - Central banks are pressured to lower policy interest rates to support economic activity and facilitate debt repayment, with rates declining by around 2 percentage points five years after a debt boom [13][49] Historical Context and Lessons - The report draws on historical data from the IMF Global Debt Database, covering 190 countries from 1950 to 2023, to analyze the relationship between debt and macroeconomic indicators [10][29] - It emphasizes that China's unique economic size and development path make it an outlier in historical debt boom episodes, complicating direct comparisons with other countries [15][34] - The findings suggest that the central government may need to increase borrowing and spending to manage the economic slowdown, reflecting lessons learned from historical debt experiences in other large economies [42][51]