交运行业2025年投资策略：绿色航运转型加速，内需首推大宗供应链

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its diversified business, future development direction, and high dividend attributes [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 36.5 billion, HKD 36.6 billion, and HKD 37.3 billion for the years 2024-2026, with net profits attributable to the parent company projected at HKD 7.7 billion for 2024 and 2025, and HKD 7.5 billion for 2026 [1]. - The report highlights the strong support for the commodity market, with expectations of demand improvement driven by stimulus policies, which will enhance the profitability of commodity supply chain enterprises [84]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply chain management services industry, which is expected to benefit from national policies aimed at upgrading and transforming the sector [15]. Summary by Sections Economic Development Stage - The industry is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development [3]. Supply Chain Market - The Chinese bulk supply chain market is large, with increasing industry concentration [6]. - The report indicates that the supply chain crisis is easing, leading to a recovery in shipping rates [92]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 9.5 billion, HKD 10.3 billion, and HKD 11.5 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding BPS of HKD 6.57, HKD 6.91, and HKD 7.3 [34]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue growth rates and profit margins for various companies in the sector [23][33]. Investment Logic - The company is positioned as a leader in integrated supply chain services in China, with significant sales volumes in metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [22]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies that enhance logistics and warehousing capabilities to provide comprehensive supply chain services, such as Material China (600704.SH) and Su Mei Da (600710.SH) [84]. Shipping and Trade - The report notes that the shipping trade is expected to grow, with a projected increase in maritime trade volume by 2% in 2024 and container trade volume by 3.5% [90]. - The demand for dry bulk shipping is anticipated to rise due to increased long-distance mineral imports [70]. Policy Impact - National policies are actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of supply chain management services, which is expected to enhance overall efficiency and international competitiveness [15].