券商板块月报：券商板块2024年11月回顾及12月前瞻

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a stable outlook with potential for moderate growth [2][18][70]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector index increased by 4.37% in November, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.71 percentage points, marking the third consecutive month of gains [6][21]. - The report anticipates a stable performance for listed brokerages in December, with overall monthly operating performance expected to remain at a high level [7][66]. - The brokerage sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle in 2025, driven by improving market conditions and investor sentiment [84]. Summary by Sections November Market Review - The brokerage index reached a new high in early November but experienced volatility and a pullback in the latter half of the month, stabilizing towards the end [10][20]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the sector fluctuated between 1.471 and 1.723, indicating a higher valuation range compared to previous months [27][38]. December Performance Outlook - The self-operated business of brokerages is expected to face pressure in December, while fixed income operations are projected to peak, contributing positively to overall investment returns [58][66]. - The average daily trading volume in the market is anticipated to remain above 15,000 billion, reflecting sustained activity despite a slight decline [58][44]. Key Factors Influencing Performance - The brokerage sector's performance is influenced by several factors, including the recovery of equity financing and the stability of margin trading balances, which are expected to contribute positively to monthly operating results [54][46]. - The report highlights a significant increase in both equity and debt financing activities, with equity financing in November reaching 291 billion, a 100.3% increase month-on-month [61][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on leading brokerages and those with valuations significantly below the sector average, as well as firms with strong wealth management capabilities [18][73]. - The brokerage sector is expected to challenge the 2x P/B valuation level in the future, indicating potential investment opportunities [18][73].