建筑建材行业2025年投资展望：内需之重下行稳致远

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the construction and building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [12][19]. Core Insights - The real estate sector's negative cycle continues to impact various aspects of the Chinese economy, constraining domestic demand and healthy economic development. The decline in new and second-hand housing prices has persisted for nearly three years, although there are signs of a slowdown in the cycle's acceleration [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the return to a long-term healthy development trajectory for the real estate sector is essential to avoid systemic risks for the Chinese economy. As the downward momentum in real estate weakens and policy measures begin to take effect, the pessimistic expectations from prolonged declines are expected to improve, leading to a recovery in industry valuations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The negative cycle in real estate has affected the real estate chain, government chain, consumption chain, and financial chain, significantly constraining the release of domestic demand and impacting overall economic health. The cumulative income from land use rights transfer and general public revenue decreased by 22.4% and 0.6% respectively from January to September 2024 [1][11]. - The cumulative social financing scale from January to November 2024 was 29.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.62%, with a more significant drop of 20.47% when excluding government bond issuance [1][11]. Policy Measures - 2024 is seen as a year to counteract the drag from real estate, address local government debt, and promote new productive forces. The report highlights the importance of government bond issuance and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [11][31]. - The report outlines that various policies have been introduced since the fourth quarter of 2021 to address the issues in the real estate sector, including measures to stimulate housing demand and support the normal operation of real estate companies [16][31]. Industry Outlook - The construction and building materials industry is expected to return to a new balance due to supply-side optimization and stabilization in the real estate sector, which will improve valuations and performance. The report notes that the industry has faced intense competition and many small to medium enterprises are struggling [14][15]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong competitive advantages and risk resilience, as they are likely to benefit the most from supply-side improvements and potential mergers and acquisitions [18][19]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies in the industry, with several companies receiving a strong buy recommendation based on their expected performance and market conditions [19][20].