食饮行业周报（2024年12月第3期）：茅台聚焦供需适配，重视春节年货数据催化

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the liquor sector, particularly highlighting a potential structural bull market for liquor under policy catalysts, while recommending a balanced approach with two main investment lines [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on supply-demand alignment and the impact of the Spring Festival on sales data, particularly for Moutai [1]. - It notes that major liquor companies are actively managing production speed to address supply-demand imbalances and inventory pressures, with Moutai and other leading brands meeting revenue and profit expectations [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival in 2025 may serve as a validation period for brands with strong market positioning and reasonable growth targets [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.18% this week, with significant drops in companies like Jiuye and Jinzhongzi [2]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Moutai, Gujinggongjiu, and others showing expected revenue and profit results [4]. Moutai's Strategic Plans - Moutai plans to slightly increase its domestic market supply in 2025 compared to 2024, with adjustments in product offerings to enhance consumer reach [5]. - The company aims to maintain stable pricing for its flagship products while adjusting distribution policies for various product lines [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-potential segments within the industry, particularly those expected to see upward trends in revenue and performance [7]. - Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili, among others, which are positioned to benefit from consumer recovery and policy-driven demand [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the beer sector has seen a valuation increase, with Qingdao Beer being a core recommendation due to expected revenue growth driven by consumption recovery and inventory reduction [20][21]. - The overall valuation for the food and beverage industry is reported at 21.09 times, with specific segments like beer and liquor showing varied valuation metrics [65].