投资策略专题：近期红利占优的成因，及后市结构展望

Group 1 - The report highlights that since November, the market has been influenced by domestic policy expectations and overseas tariff expectations, with a stronger impact from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and policy decisions [2][12] - The report notes that the performance of dividend assets has been superior, with the CSI Dividend Index rising by 3.22% since November 15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.62% [12] - The report identifies three main drivers for the current preference for dividend assets: strong year-end allocation from insurance funds, a policy vacuum period enhancing institutional pricing power, and a cautious risk appetite among institutions [2][12][16] Group 2 - The report discusses the sustainability of the current dividend market, indicating that while short-term drivers may support dividend styles, they may not dominate in 2025 [29][39] - It emphasizes that the core drivers of the current dividend style's advantage are overseas risk appetite (negatively correlated), domestic risk appetite (negatively correlated), and the Chinese economy (positively correlated) [20][21] - The report suggests that the relative advantage of dividend styles may last until March 2025, after which growth styles are expected to regain dominance [29][39] Group 3 - The report asserts that the market is currently in the "second phase of a bull market," requiring a firm policy confidence and a reduction in slope expectations [3][42] - It recommends a focus on "growth + consumption" as the core theme for 2025, with specific industry directions including technology growth, capital markets, and consumer goods [3][42] - The report advises maintaining dividend assets as a core allocation while seeking long-term value through optimization strategies, particularly in high-dividend stocks [3][39][42]