宏观专题研究：第五次经济普查对GDP的影响如何？

GDP Revision and Economic Census - The Fifth Economic Census revised China's GDP upwards by 33,690 billion yuan, with 20,257 billion yuan (1.6% increase) from the census and 13,433 billion yuan (1.1% increase) from the reform of urban residents' housing service accounting method[2] - The revision increased the share of the tertiary industry by approximately 2.1 percentage points of GDP in 2023, with the tertiary industry revised upwards by 27,496 billion yuan[2] - The reform of the housing service accounting method from cost to rental increased the GDP by 13,433 billion yuan, accounting for about 1% of the revised 2023 GDP[3] Impact on Future GDP - The 2023 GDP revision is expected to have a limited impact on the 2024 GDP growth rate but will positively affect the nominal GDP scale in 2024[6] - Future economic censuses are likely to continue revising GDP upwards, particularly as the service industry develops, with expectations of further revisions by 2028[6] US-China GDP Comparison - The Fifth Economic Census has a positive impact on the nominal GDP comparison between China and the US, with China's nominal GDP expected to reach 70% of the US by 2027 under certain assumptions[7] - To achieve this, the USD to RMB exchange rate would need to adjust to 6.6 by 2027, with intermediate steps of 7.1 in 2025 and 6.8 in 2026[7] Policy and Economic Strategy - Fiscal policy is expected to be a core focus in the future, with increased emphasis on demand-side, particularly consumer-driven, adjustments[7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a period of preparation, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on accelerating economic growth to catch up with the US[7]