房地产2025年度策略：政策定未来，重燃希望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate industry, indicating that real estate is a key driver for economic recovery and that policies will continue to support the sector through 2025 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector is intertwined with economic stability, suggesting that a true recovery in real estate is essential for overall economic stability and vice versa [2][12]. - It outlines a series of potential policies aimed at addressing key issues in the real estate market, including demand-side measures, inventory reduction strategies, and financing support [2][12]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the market, including a significant decline in new housing supply and a shift towards second-hand housing transactions, which are expected to continue in the near future [2][12][42]. Summary by Sections Policy Framework - The report discusses a comprehensive policy framework that includes demand-side measures such as urban renewal and further easing of policies in first-tier cities, as well as financial support mechanisms for real estate companies [2][12][15]. - It notes that the central government is expected to increase leverage in fiscal policy and lower interest rates to stimulate the market [2][12]. Market Dynamics - New housing supply has significantly decreased, leading to a 19.2% year-on-year decline in sales from January to November 2024, with transaction volumes returning to levels seen in 2015 [2][42]. - The report indicates that second-hand housing transactions are outperforming new housing, with second-hand sales accounting for 66% of total transactions in 23 cities, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous year [2][42]. - Land transaction volumes have also dropped sharply, with a 31% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value across 300 cities from January to November 2024 [2][42]. Inventory and Sales Trends - The report highlights that inventory levels remain high, with a new housing inventory of 460 million square meters, representing 86% of historical highs, and a depletion cycle of 27 months, which is significantly longer than previous cycles [2][42]. - Despite various policy measures, the market's recovery is expected to be slow, with significant regional disparities in market activity and a continued reliance on demolition and urban renewal policies to stimulate demand in lower-tier cities [2][42].