环保化债策略专题（五）：期待环卫报表修复及长期需求改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the environmental sanitation sector, expecting a recovery in financial statements and long-term demand improvement [14]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of debt resolution plans is anticipated to enhance the financial performance of the sanitation sector, with a significant amount of accounts receivable totaling approximately 27.5 billion yuan, accounting for 33% of total assets as of Q3 2024 [35][60]. - The sanitation service sector shows rigid demand and stable operations, with a total contract amount reaching 121.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [35]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the sanitation service sector is projected to be 12x in 2024 and 10x in 2025, indicating potential for investment [35]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Debt Resolution and Financial Recovery - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent debt resolution plan, which aims to restore local government investment demand and improve the profitability and cash recovery of environmental enterprises [41][42]. Section 2: Accounts Receivable and Aging Issues - As of Q3 2024, the sanitation sector's accounts receivable and contract assets have increased by 9% year-on-year, totaling approximately 27.5 billion yuan [60]. - The average collection rate for accounts receivable within three years is over 97%, indicating manageable collection risks [53]. Section 3: Sanitation Services Demand and Stability - The sanitation service sector has shown a steady recovery in demand, with leading companies like Qiaoyin Co. and Yuhua Tian maintaining robust revenue growth, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in net profit from 2018 to 2023 [35][66]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with over 60% of large-scale projects awarded at low prices, yet leading companies have sufficient orders to ensure revenue stability [35]. Section 4: Sanitation Equipment and Future Trends - The report notes a decline in sanitation vehicle sales, with a 6% year-on-year decrease in 2023, but highlights the potential growth in new energy and intelligent sanitation vehicles, which saw a 39% increase in sales in the same period [35][47]. - The market for unmanned sanitation vehicles is projected to reach a potential market size of 100 billion yuan, with significant interest in automation within the sector [4][5].