青岛啤酒：新董事长上任，期待2025新篇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected relative stock price returns of over 20% within 6 months [7][23] Core Views - The company's production and sales strategies are expected to remain consistent, with no significant changes due to leadership transitions [4] - The new chairman, Jiang Zongxiang, brings extensive experience in corporate governance, strategic management, digital transformation, and supply chain management, which is expected to drive continued innovation and profitability [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from external factors such as consumption promotion policies and the recovery of dining and nightlife scenes, which will boost beer demand and upgrade speed [7] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline by 5% in 2024, followed by growth of 3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, reaching RMB 33.7 billion by 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 3%, 10%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching RMB 5.23 billion by 2026 [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to increase from RMB 6.08 billion in 2023 to RMB 7.84 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.9% [5] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB 3.13 in 2023 to RMB 3.83 in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 25.01x in 2023 to 20.42x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [5] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 12.80x in 2023 to 10.25x in 2026, reflecting better operational efficiency [5] - The P/B ratio is forecasted to drop from 3.89x in 2023 to 3.39x in 2026, suggesting a more favorable valuation [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on improving operational quality and implementing an ERP system in 2024, which is expected to enhance efficiency [7] - The new management team is expected to lead the company towards high-quality development, with a focus on innovation, brand influence, and profitability [4][7] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the non-baijiu segment, with a strong focus on beer production and sales [9] - The industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumption scenarios, which will drive demand for beer and accelerate product upgrades [7]