国君研究|一周研选 1223-1228

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December aligns with expectations, but the forecast for 2025 has been revised down to two rate cuts, indicating a hawkish stance[3] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to experience oscillation and individual stock themes continuing to play a significant role[5] Sector Insights - Non-bank financial institutions are expected to benefit from eased capital pressures, which will support stable earnings and dividend expectations[10] - The automotive sector is awaiting the implementation of new policies, with a short-term focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises[10] - Coal prices are projected to touch a bottom of approximately 770 CNY/ton by late December to early January, indicating a potential recovery phase[16] - The steel sector is witnessing a decline in inventory levels, leading to a month-on-month recovery in profit margins[19] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on individual stocks and themes amid a broader market rebound, with a particular emphasis on the declining risk-free interest rates[6] - The REITs market is expected to maintain or increase valuations despite high supply levels, suggesting a favorable relative allocation value[8] - The sales fee rates in the non-bank sector are trending downward, indicating a shift towards fund supermarket and advisory models to meet the evolving needs of residents[13]