机械行业2025年年度投资策略：从车机船到风光锂，从胜率到赔率

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [64] Core Views - The industry is transitioning from pursuing certainty (win rate) to pursuing elasticity (payout ratio) [63][101] - The current cycle is at a relative bottom, and the investment strategy should shift towards elasticity (payout ratio) [101] - The industry is expected to see a reversal in the cycle, with sectors at the bottom or just starting to recover showing greater elasticity [9][101] Industry Analysis by Sector Engineering Machinery - The domestic excavator market is expected to enter a new replacement cycle starting in 2024, with domestic sales turning positive in March 2023 and maintaining double-digit growth [9] - The recovery of post-cycle equipment such as cranes and concrete machinery is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a clear inflection point [9] - Domestic excavator sales in 2023 were 90,000 units, a 69% decline from the peak in 2020 [34] Shipbuilding - The global shipping industry is in a new upward cycle, with container ship orders rebounding in 2021 driven by freight rates, and the current cycle has lasted for about 3 years [10] - The aging of ships delivered in the previous cycle (2003-2008) is driving replacement demand [10] Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing supply-side optimization, with prices for silicon wafers, cells, and modules continuing to bottom out, leading to weak expansion intentions [46] - BC battery technology is accelerating, with companies like Aiko Solar achieving a conversion efficiency of 24.6% for N-type ABC modules, and BC capacity is expected to exceed 100GW in the medium to long term [20] - Laser equipment is benefiting significantly from BC battery technology, with single GW value increasing notably [48] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with downstream lithium battery manufacturers reducing capital expenditures due to overcapacity, leading to a decline in orders for equipment companies [78] - Solid-state batteries and composite current collectors are making new progress, with equipment companies expected to benefit first [113] Wind Power Equipment - Wind turbine bidding prices have bottomed out, and the industry is expected to see a rebound in prices and volumes, with overseas and offshore wind power continuing to grow rapidly [113] - The profitability of wind power component companies is expected to improve further if raw material prices such as steel decline [131] Humanoid Robots - The industrialization of humanoid robots is steadily progressing, with thousands of applications expected to land domestically and internationally in 2025 [55] - Core component demand, such as harmonic reducers and planetary roller screws, is expected to start releasing, with domestic supply chains further maturing [24][27] Semiconductor Equipment - Overseas restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports to China are increasing, making it increasingly urgent to improve the localization rate of semiconductor equipment [156] - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to recover in 2025, with significant growth in wafer manufacturing, packaging, and testing equipment [152] Scientific Instruments - Scientific instruments are benefiting from localization, with high-end products starting to gain traction [136] - Domestic scientific instrument companies are making progress in technology and market share, with some indicators catching up to international levels [18] Rail Transit Equipment - Railway investment remains strong, with demand for updates and replacements continuing to release, and overseas markets contributing significant growth [113] - The urban rail business is bottoming out, and overseas markets are accelerating, with the "Belt and Road" initiative serving as an important platform for international expansion [113] General Equipment - The general equipment sector is at the bottom of the cycle, with PPI and inventory at low levels, and some medium-term indicators and orders from foreign leaders showing signs of recovery [31] - The sector is expected to see a reversal in the cycle, with significant elasticity in sectors such as wind power, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics [113] Composite Current Collectors - The composite current collector industry is entering a phase of rapid development, with material manufacturers improving layouts and equipment companies increasing speeds to reduce costs [119] - Composite aluminum foil has achieved mass production and installation in vehicles, while composite copper foil is in the final stage of verification, with the industry trend towards industrialization becoming clear [119]