A股2025年十大预测

Core Views - A new wave of M&A activity in the A-share market is expected to accelerate, driven by policy relaxation and strategic restructuring [14] - The A-share market is predicted to experience a volatile upward trend, entering a new fluctuation range, with growth stocks, especially in the tech sector, likely to outperform [17][22] - The "internal circulation" strategy will dominate investment opportunities throughout the year, supported by policies promoting domestic consumption and industrial upgrades [28][43] - AI applications and policy-driven industrial trends are expected to remain active, with a shift from infrastructure to downstream applications [47] - M&A transactions are anticipated to remain active, with significant policy support and strategic restructuring in both state-owned and private enterprises [14][67] Market Trends and Predictions - The A-share market is expected to see a growth style resurgence, with AI and semiconductor sectors leading the charge, while micro-cap and high-dividend styles may underperform [19] - Foreign capital is predicted to return to the A-share market, driven by a narrowing US-China economic growth gap and a potential Fed rate cut exceeding 100bp [19][66] - The PPI is expected to narrow its negative range, leading to a recovery in nominal growth rates, which will benefit corporate earnings [54][55] - The profitability of listed companies is forecasted to return to a recovery phase, supported by improving macroeconomic indicators and policy measures [59][60] Policy and Industry Impact - Significant policy changes in 2023-2024, including revisions to the "Reorganization Measures" and the introduction of new policies like the "National Nine Articles," have created a favorable environment for M&A and restructuring [5][14] - The "Two New" and "Two Heavy" policies are expected to drive domestic demand and investment, particularly in sectors like energy, technology, and infrastructure [43] - The Fed's potential rate cuts are likely to benefit growth stocks, as lower dollar interest rates reduce the cost of capital for globally oriented companies [44][66] Sector-Specific Insights - The tech sector, particularly AI and semiconductors, is expected to dominate market performance, with significant growth in both hardware and software applications [19][47] - Traditional sectors like finance, consumer goods, and cyclical industries may see limited outperformance, as the market shifts focus to growth and tech-driven sectors [51] - The M&A market is expected to remain active, with opportunities in state-owned enterprise restructuring, private enterprise turnarounds, and cross-border acquisitions aimed at developing "new quality productive forces" [14][67]