宏观策略周报：市场延续震荡整理，逢低布局科技成长

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.95%, closing at 3,400.14 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.13%, closing at 10,659.98 points[4] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 13,651.94 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.35% from the previous week[4] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate closed at 7.2992, with a slight increase of 0.01%[4] Investment Strategy - For Q1 2025, the A-share index is expected to show a strong oscillation due to unchanged macro policies and marginal improvements in economic data[5] - Focus on high-prosperity sectors, particularly in technology and self-sufficiency areas, such as semiconductors and defense industries[5] - High dividend yield sectors, like banking and coal, remain attractive for medium-term investment despite potential short-term style shifts[5] Economic Indicators - As of December 29, 2024, the total market P/E ratio (TTM) for the entire A-share market was 18.85, which is 44.84% lower than the historical average[60] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with a total profit of 66,674.8 billion CNY from January to November 2023[62] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, volatility in overseas markets, and deteriorating Sino-US relations[79] - Investors should remain cautious of changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, which could impact market stability[21]