海外市场月报：美债利率高企何时休？

Market Performance - As of December 27, 2024, the Nasdaq index increased by 2.6%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced a pullback[4] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 rising by 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 declined[4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, indices such as Nikkei 225, Taiwan Weighted Index, and Hang Seng Index performed strongly[4] Inflation and Interest Rates - The U.S. November PCE price index was below expectations, indicating persistent inflation, with a forecasted Fed rate cut of only 50 basis points in 2025[5] - The ongoing political struggle over fiscal spending and the debt ceiling is contributing to high U.S. Treasury yields, currently around 4.6%[5][6] - The market anticipates that the high Treasury yields are largely driven by expectations rather than economic data, with weak economic indicators failing to significantly impact yields[6] Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding fiscal spending and potential impacts from Trump's presidency are creating uncertainty in the U.S. fiscal outlook, which could affect Treasury issuance and yields[7] - The report suggests that the high Treasury yields may stabilize until market concerns regarding Trump's policies ease, with January 20, 2025, potentially marking a turning point[7] Investment Recommendations - The analysis recommends positioning in long-term U.S. Treasuries and small-cap growth indices such as XBI and ARK, anticipating continued high volatility in Treasury yields[7] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalations in geopolitical tensions, which could lead to increased market volatility[8][50]