锡行业月报（2024.11）锡矿趋紧，供需回暖库存下降，锡价有支撑

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" (Stronger than the market) for the next 6-12 months, indicating that the industry's overall return is expected to be higher than the market benchmark by more than 5% [31] Core Views - Long-term optimism for tin prices due to weak supply growth and strong demand from emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [7] - Short-term support for tin prices from inventory declines and pre-holiday restocking demand [29] - Key companies to watch: Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver-Tin [7][29] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Tin concentrate imports in November were 12,136 tons, down 19.2% month-on-month and 56.5% year-on-year [39] - Cumulative tin concentrate imports from January to November were 150,840 tons, down 35.1% year-on-year [39] - Refined tin production in November was 16,990 tons, up 9.2% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month [52] - Cumulative refined tin production from January to November was 167,644 tons, up 9.4% year-on-year [52] Demand - Apparent tin consumption in November was 19,100 tons, up 4.1% month-on-month but down 4.2% year-on-year [20] - Cumulative apparent tin consumption from January to November was 152,100 tons, down 10.8% year-on-year [20] - Strong demand from downstream sectors: - Integrated circuit production in November was 3.76 billion units, up 4.86% month-on-month and 12.37% year-on-year [27] - New energy vehicle production in November was 1.574 million units, up 10.2% month-on-month and 51.1% year-on-year [27] - Solar cell production in November was 68.14 GW, up 2.5% month-on-month and 10.9% year-on-year [27] Inventory and Price Trends - Domestic tin ingot social inventory as of December 20 was 7,805 tons, with global visible tin inventory at 12,565 tons [28] - Domestic social inventory has decreased by 54.9% since June [28] - Tin prices are supported by inventory declines and improving supply-demand dynamics [28] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies: Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver-Tin [7][29] - These companies are expected to benefit from the favorable supply-demand dynamics and rising tin prices [7][29]