有色金属与新材料周报：强美元持续叠加需求淡季，有色金属价格或进入震荡阶段

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, indicating that the stock price is expected to perform within ±10% of the market over the next six months [35][112]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the demand for copper is gradually recovering domestically, and the industrialization in emerging markets is accelerating, opening up long-term demand space for refined copper. The ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply is becoming more apparent, providing support from the raw material side. The report recommends关注紫金矿业 (Zijin Mining) [21][59]. - For aluminum, the report indicates that the weak supply and strong demand dynamics are expected to accelerate, leading to a potential upward trend in aluminum prices. The report recommends关注天山股份 (Tianshan Shares) [107][59]. - The report highlights that the gold price may enter a volatile phase due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts aligning with market expectations, while industrial metal prices are also expected to experience fluctuations [42][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Index Trends - As of December 27, the non-ferrous metal index closed at 4828.46 points, down 0.5% from the previous period. The precious metal index and industrial metal index also saw declines of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, while the energy metal index dropped by 1.6%. In contrast, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.4% during the same period [85]. 2. Precious Metals - The report notes that as of December 27, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.15% to $2636.5 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.6% to 872.52 tons [42][59]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of December 27, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 0.4% to 74090 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 105,400 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 670 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 272,700 tons, also reflecting an increase [59]. - Aluminum: The SHFE aluminum futures contract fell by 0.9% to 19795 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 490,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 38,000 tons [59]. 4. Energy Metals - The report discusses the production and operating rates of lithium and cobalt, indicating fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics that could impact future pricing and availability [79][80].