中原证券：晨会聚焦-20241230

Investment Ratings - The report provides a rating system for investment strategies, categorizing them into five levels: Buy, Accumulate, Cautious Accumulate, Reduce, and Sell, based on expected performance relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1]. Company and Industry Analysis - The shareholder return rates for food items have been declining from 2016 to 2019 and from 2020 to 2023, while the return rates for liquor and beer have been increasing. Dairy products remain stable, whereas snacks and soft drinks show significant volatility [5]. - The food and beverage sector's performance in the secondary market reflects the fundamentals, with the sector experiencing a cumulative decline of 51.98% since the peak in 2021. Only soft drinks and snacks have recorded positive returns since 2021, while other segments have seen negative returns [5]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has dropped to a historical low, indicating an adjustment to changes in performance growth. The sector's valuation center is expected to find a new reasonable position below historical averages due to slowing growth in basic consumer goods [5]. - For 2025, revenue growth for listed food and beverage companies is expected to remain in single digits, slightly above the industry average. The cost environment is anticipated to remain friendly, which will support corporate profits during this period of slowed revenue growth [6]. - The report highlights emerging markets within the food and beverage sector, such as prepared dishes, baking, and tea drinks, which are expected to grow rapidly, reflecting a trend of consumer upgrading [6]. Market Performance and Valuation - In November, the media sector outperformed the market, with an 8.64% increase, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 7.98 percentage points. The animation and internet advertising sub-sectors saw the highest gains, driven by the rise of the "Guanzi Economy" and AI applications [6]. - The gaming industry is projected to reach historical highs in market size, user numbers, and overseas revenue in 2024, with strong demand and minimal external economic interference [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in various sectors, including film, advertising, and gaming, suggesting that companies benefiting from AI advancements should be closely monitored [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the prepared dishes, baking, pre-mixed drinks, health products, snacks, and yeast sectors for 2025 [6]. - It suggests maintaining a "stronger than market" investment rating for the power and public utilities sector, emphasizing the importance of high-dividend, low-valuation quality assets [14]. - The report advises continuous attention to the performance of the gaming sector and the potential for significant returns from companies involved in AI-enhanced applications [6][8].