Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electrical equipment sector, driven by strong demand in energy storage and electric vehicles [105][108] Core Views - The energy storage sector is experiencing robust growth, with the US market leading the charge. In Q2 2024, US energy storage installations surged by 79% YoY, with large-scale storage projects accounting for the majority of this growth [130] - The electric vehicle (EV) market continues to expand, with China's EV sales reaching 1.512 million units in November 2024, a 47% YoY increase. The report revises its 2024 sales forecast to 13 million units, up 37% YoY [203] - The lithium battery industry is poised for a rebound, with global demand expected to grow by 30% in 2025, driven by both EV and energy storage applications [228] Sector-Specific Insights Energy Storage - US large-scale energy storage installations in October 2024 reached 754MW, a 317% YoY increase, with a total capacity of 2.2GWh. The average storage duration was 2.9 hours [130] - Germany's energy storage market saw a 58.7% YoY increase in large-scale storage installations in November 2024, with 49.2MW added [133] - The report highlights the strong demand for energy storage in emerging markets, with Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America showing significant growth potential [105] Electric Vehicles - BYD led the Chinese EV market in November 2024 with 507,000 units sold, a 68% YoY increase. Other notable performers include Li Auto (49,000 units) and XPeng (31,000 units) [203] - The report predicts that China's EV market will grow by 25% in 2025, driven by continued government incentives and the introduction of new models [203] - Tesla's FSD v13.2.2 and its collaboration with CATL are expected to further boost the EV market, particularly in the US and Europe [105] Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium carbonate market remains stable, with prices hovering around 71,900 RMB/ton. Despite high production rates, demand from cathode manufacturers remains subdued [43] - The ternary materials market is expected to see a 4% YoY growth in China in 2024, although global demand may decline due to reduced subsidies in Europe and lower-than-expected EV sales in the US [44] - The report notes that the price of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials is under pressure, with a 10% decline expected in January 2025 due to the Lunar New Year holiday [53] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is facing weak demand, with module prices remaining volatile. Topcon modules are priced between 0.65-0.73 RMB/W, while HJT modules are stable at 0.75 RMB/W [68] - The report highlights the impact of upstream price increases on the PV supply chain, with silicon wafer and cell prices rising in response to higher silicon costs [87][88] - The PV industry is expected to see a 20% YoY growth in global installations in 2024, with China accounting for 240GW of the total 490GW [105] Wind Power - The wind power sector is set for a strong recovery in 2025, with offshore wind installations expected to double YoY to 13GW. Onshore wind installations are forecast to grow by 25% to over 100GW [105] - The report notes that wind turbine prices are rising, driven by changes in bidding rules and strong demand from state-owned enterprises [105] Grid Investment - Grid investment in China is expected to grow by 8% in 2024, with a focus on ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects and renewable energy integration [105] - The report highlights the potential for grid upgrades in both domestic and international markets, driven by the need to support renewable energy and AI-driven demand [105]
电力设备行业跟踪周报：锂电和大储需求旺盛、AI电气和人形热点不断
东吴证券·2024-12-30 01:02