海外宏观周报：10年美债利率站上4.6%

Economic Policy Overview - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached 4.6%, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.31%[29] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen warns that the debt ceiling may be reached between January 14 and January 23, 2025, necessitating extraordinary measures to prevent default[9] - The U.S. November core capital goods orders increased by 0.7%, the largest monthly gain in a year, indicating rising long-term investment intentions[5] Consumer Confidence and Spending - The U.S. December Consumer Confidence Index fell to 104.7, significantly below the expected 112.9[33] - Mastercard reported a 3.8% year-over-year increase in holiday retail sales for 2024, surpassing the 3.1% growth in 2023[35] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 21 were 219,000, lower than the expected 223,000, while continuing claims reached a one-year high of 1.91 million[36] European Economic Developments - The European Central Bank (ECB) is close to achieving its 2% inflation target but remains cautious about service sector inflation[17] - France's new Prime Minister has set a budget deficit target of "close to 5%" for 2025, consistent with previous goals[39] Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's Tokyo inflation rate rose to 2.4% in December, slightly below the expected 2.5%[40] - November retail sales in Japan increased by 2.8%, exceeding expectations of 1.5%[40]