ACC(600585) 光大证券·2024-12-30 01:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [21][18]. Core Insights - The report suggests that the most challenging period has passed, with significant profit improvements expected in 2025. The national cement production is projected to decline by 10% year-on-year due to reduced demand in infrastructure and real estate sectors. However, after successful price increases in Q4 2024, a notable profit recovery is anticipated [21][11]. - The report highlights that the cement prices in East China have shown seasonal adjustments, with a general price stability expected in Q4 2024. The successful price hikes are expected to improve profit margins and reinforce industry discipline, which will help maintain a healthy pricing order [5][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for 2022 was 132,022 million, with a projected increase to 140,999 million in 2023, followed by a decline to 102,181 million in 2024E and a recovery to 109,607 million in 2025E [7][12]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15,661 million in 2022, expected to decrease to 10,430 million in 2023, and then recover to 11,086 million in 2025E. The EPS is projected to be 2.96 in 2022, decreasing to 1.97 in 2023, and recovering to 2.09 in 2025E [12][7]. Market Data - The total market capitalization of the company is 127,342 million, with a total share capital of 5,299 million shares. The stock has fluctuated between a low of 19.53 and a high of 28.75 over the past year [6][7]. Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 8 for 2022, increasing to 12 in 2023 and stabilizing around 11 in 2025. The ROE is expected to decrease from 8.5% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023, with a gradual recovery thereafter [12][7].