美国经济点评：年终盘点：美国6.4%的赤字率向何方？

Group 1: Fiscal Overview - The U.S. federal government spending for FY2024 is projected at $6.8 trillion, with revenues at $4.9 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of $1.8 trillion and a deficit rate of 6.4%[4]. - The total federal debt has increased to $35.5 trillion, accounting for 120.7% of GDP, which is a 2.1 percentage point increase from the previous fiscal year[4]. - In FY2024, the U.S. government revenue is expected to grow by 10.8%, with corporate income tax revenue increasing by 26.3% and personal income tax rising by 11.5%[5]. Group 2: Spending Breakdown - Social Security remains the largest expenditure category, accounting for 21.6% of total spending, followed by healthcare and net interest payments[5]. - Net interest payments have surged by 33.7% compared to the previous fiscal year, significantly impacting discretionary spending[5]. - The Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration, and Department of Defense are among the highest spending departments, with the Treasury's spending increasing by 18.3%[5]. Group 3: Future Projections - The fiscal outlook for 2025 suggests continued high deficits, with potential challenges in reducing the deficit rate, which may remain between 6.2% and 6.5%[44]. - The "Department of Government Efficiency" aims to cut $2 trillion from the budget, but achieving this goal is considered challenging due to the high proportion of mandatory spending[39]. - The structure of federal spending indicates that mandatory expenditures, which include Medicare and Social Security, constitute approximately 74% of total spending, making cuts difficult[39].