银行投资观察：高股息重估尾声与复苏逻辑的序幕

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" as of December 29, 2024 [9]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the banking sector has shown a strong performance, with an overall increase of 3.9%, outperforming the Wind All A index, which declined by 0.6% [58]. - High dividend assets are becoming increasingly attractive due to a significant decline in long-term bond rates, driven by liquidity easing and adjustments in interbank deposit policies [4]. - The report suggests that the trend of high dividend revaluation may peak in mid-January, but it could also signal the end of a three-year cycle of high dividend revaluation [60][61]. - The investment strategy recommends focusing on banks sensitive to economic recovery, such as China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, as well as banks with a high proportion of small and micro clients, like Ruifeng Bank and Changshu Bank [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation: Sector Performance - The banking sector has outperformed other industries, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing increases of 4.49%, 3.79%, 3.45%, and 3.08% respectively [58]. 2. Investment Recommendations: High Dividend Revaluation and Recovery Logic - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend revaluation and suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a shift towards recovery logic as macro policies are implemented [43][61]. 3. Sector Performance: Banking Sector Uptrend - The banking sector's weekly turnover rate increased to 1.58%, ranking it last among 30 major sectors, indicating a growing interest in banking stocks [74]. 4. Individual Stock Performance: High Dividend Banks - Individual stocks within the banking sector have generally risen, with notable increases for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (up 8.14%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (up 5.97%), and Qilu Bank (up 5.50%) [42]. 5. Convertible Bond Performance: Average Price Increase - The average price of bank convertible bonds rose by 0.54%, outperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 0.39 percentage points [8]. 6. Earnings Forecast Tracking: Stable Growth Expectations - The earnings growth forecast for listed banks in 2024 remains unchanged, indicating stability in expected performance [59].