交运行业2024Q4业绩前瞻：外需有韧性，内需有改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics and transportation industry for Q4 2024 [82]. Core Insights - The logistics industry is expected to maintain a high level of activity, with national express delivery volume growth projected to remain in the range of 15%-20%. Prices are expected to rise moderately during peak seasons, and overall profitability for express companies is anticipated to remain stable with steady profit growth [1][76]. - The report highlights that the supply chain performance is gradually bottoming out, with cross-border logistics facing short-term uncertainties. However, major players are focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, leading to stable performance [2][73]. - The shipping sector is experiencing a rebound in container shipping rates, while oil and bulk shipping are under pressure due to weak demand. The report anticipates that container shipping will continue to benefit from external demand, while bulk shipping may see some improvement [8][66]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a steady growth in volume, with a projected increase of 15%-20% in Q4 2024. The profitability per package is expected to remain stable, and major companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][76]. Logistics - The logistics sector is witnessing a gradual recovery, with supply chain performance stabilizing. Cross-border logistics face increased short-term uncertainties, but overall performance is expected to remain robust [2][73]. Shipping - Container shipping rates are expected to rebound due to increased demand and operational adjustments by shipping companies. However, oil shipping remains under pressure due to weak demand and OPEC+ production cuts [4][8]. Ports - The port sector is projected to benefit from sustained external demand for container throughput, while bulk cargo throughput is expected to show signs of improvement. The overall cargo throughput is anticipated to grow [21][66]. Railways - The railway sector is expected to see a recovery in passenger transport, with a projected year-on-year growth of 7.2% in Q4 2024. Freight transport is also expected to stabilize as coal production resumes in key regions [67][81]. Highways - The highway sector is expected to experience a slight rebound in traffic, leading to a modest improvement in profitability compared to the previous year [40][77].