钢铁行业周报：复盘2024年，钢铁基本面出现了哪些变化？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [26]. Core Insights - The year 2024 marks the third year of the steel industry entering a downward cycle, with both commodity and equity sectors experiencing a transition from "accelerated decline" to "sufficient bottoming" [21]. - Current steel sector bottoming is more pronounced compared to previous years, increasing the probability of upward improvement [21]. - Total steel inventory has decreased to historically low levels, indicating a release of inventory pressure and reflecting extreme pessimism in the industry chain [21]. - Steel production has seen accelerated declines, with companies frequently engaging in voluntary production cuts, leading to increased pressure on upstream iron and coke demand [21]. - The construction demand has significantly declined, and the ongoing industrial cycle suggests a higher probability of demand improvement [21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Steel prices have shown high volatility, with expectations of steady growth driving prices up initially, followed by a decline due to weak construction demand and excess supply [5][25]. - The overall steel inventory has continued to decrease, with a notable drop in rebar inventory [25]. Production and Profitability - Daily average pig iron production has decreased to 2.283 million tons, reflecting a reduction in production due to maintenance [25]. - The profitability rate of 247 surveyed steel mills stands at 49.78%, indicating a slight increase [25]. Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of steel has decreased by 1.82% week-on-week, with long products seeing a more significant decline [25]. - The construction sector's demand for steel is under pressure, with expectations of gradual recovery in manufacturing steel demand [21][25]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to see a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in manufacturing, as the construction sector stabilizes [21]. - The potential for upward price movement in steel is limited due to the existing overcapacity concerns [21].