金属、非金属与采矿行业周报：碳酸锂重回去库，铝铜继续推荐

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2][4]. Core Views - The lithium industry has passed its darkest hour, with a clear trend of improvement in supply and demand fundamentals. The upcoming Q1 of next year is expected to see a strong rebound in production and inventory replenishment, leading to a price recovery [8][11]. - The report highlights the divergence in macroeconomic expectations between domestic and international markets, impacting the short-term performance of industrial metals. While external markets show signs of recovery, domestic demand remains cautious, particularly affecting aluminum and black commodities [11][17]. Summary by Sections Lithium Industry - The lithium market is experiencing a return to inventory due to seasonal factors and strong demand. The report anticipates a rebound in prices as production ramps up and the supply chain replenishes [11]. - The financial health of mining companies is deteriorating under low profitability expectations, likely leading to production cuts and a downward adjustment in supply forecasts [11]. Nickel and Cobalt - Nickel prices are expected to rebound from their lows, supported by cost factors. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions that could influence nickel prices [11]. - The cobalt market is closely watched for the impact of policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo on supply dynamics [11]. Aluminum and Copper - The report recommends continued investment in aluminum and copper, citing aluminum's profit elasticity and copper's low valuation as key factors [11]. - Recent price movements show LME three-month copper rising by 0.4% and aluminum by 0.6%, while SHFE copper increased by 0.4% and aluminum decreased by 0.9% [11][52]. Rare Earths and Tungsten - The report notes a slowdown in the growth rate of rare earth supply, which may support price stability. It also highlights the potential for price recovery in tungsten as demand begins to stabilize [11]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that gold may enter a third phase of a bull market, despite recent price corrections due to hawkish monetary policy outlooks. The long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic [11]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.95%, while the metals and mining sector underperformed, declining by 0.50% [17]. Price Trends - The report provides a detailed overview of price trends for various metals, including a 0.7% increase in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices and a 1.0% increase in SHFE gold prices [24][54].