大宗商品行业运行情况及展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodity industry [3]. Core Insights - The global economy is expected to continue its stable recovery in 2024, with resilient growth projected for 2025, although there are significant risks and uncertainties that may hinder the growth of commodity demand [4][5][6]. - A series of policies in China aimed at promoting the liberalization and facilitation of commodity trade are expected to enhance resource allocation capabilities and increase the influence of Chinese commodity prices [4][9]. - Global commodity prices are anticipated to rise initially in 2024 but stabilize and decline later in the year, with an overall downward trend expected in 2025 while remaining at historically high levels [10][37]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment - The commodity industry is closely linked to macroeconomic cycles, with demand fluctuations driven by economic conditions. The IMF forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 3.2% for 2024, slightly down from 3.3% in 2023 [5][6]. - Major economies are expected to show varied growth rates, with the US projected at 2.8%, the Eurozone at 0.8%, and China at 4.8% for 2024 [5]. Industry Policies - In 2024, China introduced policies to enhance the construction of commodity trading centers and improve regulatory frameworks for commodity futures, which are expected to facilitate trade and enhance price influence [4][9][36]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a slowdown in global oil demand growth, with a projected increase of 920,000 barrels per day in 2024, significantly lower than the previous year's growth. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop to $80 per barrel in 2024 [22]. - Coal supply and demand in China are expected to remain balanced, with production and imports showing growth. However, coal prices are projected to decline further in 2025 due to a continued oversupply [23][25]. - Steel demand is expected to recover slightly in 2025 due to government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and increasing infrastructure investment, despite a decline in steel production and imports in 2024 [26][42]. Agricultural Commodities - Favorable weather conditions have led to an increase in the supply of major agricultural products, with a projected price increase of 2.1% in 2024. However, prices are expected to decline by 4.2% in 2025 due to increased supply [29].