光伏行业周报（20241223-20241229）：龙头减产叠加期货上市，多晶硅环节供需有望迎来改善

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the photovoltaic (PV) sector [1][2][3] Core Views - The PV industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability recovery due to production cuts by major polysilicon producers and the launch of polysilicon futures [1][16][17] - Polysilicon prices have shown a slight upward trend, with N-type polysilicon prices increasing by 0.74% and N-type granular silicon prices rising by 2.70% week-over-week [1][66] - The launch of polysilicon futures is expected to accelerate inventory reduction and guide price recovery in the industry [1][17] Market Performance - The power equipment sector fell by 0.57% this week, with the PV equipment sub-sector declining by 1.71% [5][6][20] - Top-performing sub-sectors in power equipment were motors (+3.56%), other power equipment (+3.25%), and grid equipment (+0.75%) [20] - Underperforming sub-sectors included batteries (-1.15%), PV equipment (-1.71%), and wind power equipment (-2.35%) [20] Key Company Developments - Tongwei and Daqo New Energy announced production cuts, with Tongwei reducing output in Yunnan and Sichuan, and Daqo cutting production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [1][37] - The production cuts are expected to be more significant than previous seasonal reductions, with December polysilicon production estimated at 94,600 tons, down 15.2% month-over-month [1][65] Price Trends - Polysilicon prices remained stable this week, with dense material at 39.00 RMB/kg and granular material at 36.00 RMB/kg [1][80] - N-type polysilicon prices ranged from 38,000-44,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 40,600 RMB/ton, up 0.74% week-over-week [1][66] - PV glass prices were stable at 19.25 RMB/m² for 3.2mm and 11.75 RMB/m² for 2.0mm [1][57] Valuation Metrics - The power equipment sector's PE (TTM) is at 26x, with a valuation percentile of 25.2% [9][44][78] - The PV equipment sub-sector has a PE (TTM) of 21x and a valuation percentile of 20.2% [31][51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on polysilicon, integrated module, and auxiliary material leaders benefiting from supply-demand improvements [1] - Companies to watch include Tongwei, GCL Technology, Daqo New Energy, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and Canadian Solar [1] - Emerging technologies like BC cells and silver-free/silver-reduced paste technologies are also highlighted as potential growth areas [1]