SMIC(688981) 华鑫证券·2024-12-30 05:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to SMIC (688981 SH) for the first time [17] Core Views - SMIC is a leader in China's integrated circuit manufacturing industry and one of the world's leading pure-play foundries, ranking 4th globally and 1st in China by 2023 sales [17] - The company benefits from its platform-based ecosystem model, providing one-stop services including design services, IP support, and photomask manufacturing [17] - Smartization and high-speed computing performance demands are key market drivers, with new smart terminal product upgrades catalyzing replacement cycles [17] - In Q3 2023, SMIC achieved record quarterly revenue of $2 17 billion, up 14% QoQ, with capacity utilization reaching 90 4% and gross margin improving to 20 5% [17] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 57 477 billion yuan in 2024 to 74 245 billion yuan in 2026, with EPS increasing from 0 49 yuan to 0 81 yuan [17][19] - Net profit attributable to parent company is projected to rise from 3 905 billion yuan in 2024 to 6 437 billion yuan in 2026 [6][17] - Revenue growth rates are estimated at 27% for 2024, 14 1% for 2025, and 13 2% for 2026 [20] - Net profit growth rates are forecasted at -19% for 2024, 34 5% for 2025, and 22 5% for 2026 [21] Market Position - SMIC operates 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry services globally [17] - The company added 21k 12-inch wafer monthly capacity in Q3 2023, optimizing product structure and increasing average selling prices [17] - SMIC's current market capitalization stands at 777 7 billion yuan with a share price of 97 51 yuan as of December 27, 2024 [17] Valuation Metrics - The stock trades at 199x, 148x, and 121x projected 2024-2026 earnings respectively [17] - Price-to-sales ratios are estimated at 13 5x for 2024, 11 9x for 2025, and 10 5x for 2026 [23] - Price-to-book ratios are forecasted at 5 3x for 2024, 5 2x for 2025, and 5 0x for 2026 [23] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is experiencing explosive growth driven by smart terminal upgrades and high-performance computing demands [17] - Replacement cycles for smartphones, PCs, wearables, and consumer electronics are showing gradual growth momentum [17]