原木策略周报

Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance is currently stable, with slight price increases observed in some regions for downstream products like wood planks[1] - New Zealand's expected monthly shipping volume is projected to be around 10,000 cubic meters[3] Price Trends - The BDI index shows fluctuations, with a notable increase in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating a recovery in shipping rates[23] - The average daily outbound volume in Fujian is expected to remain steady, while Guangdong's daily outbound volume is also projected to stabilize[6][7] Wood Prices - The current spot price for imported spruce logs is approximately €121 per cubic meter, while radiata pine logs are priced at $120 per cubic meter[63] - Radiata pine log prices at the Rizhao port have shown minor fluctuations, with recent prices around 750 to 920 per cubic meter depending on specifications[12][13] Inventory Levels - National port inventory levels for 2023 are projected to be lower than in 2022, indicating a tightening supply situation[73] - The inventory of radiata pine logs is expected to decrease, reflecting a shift in market dynamics[87] Market Outlook - Short-term market logic appears weak, suggesting that if prices rise significantly, hedging opportunities should be considered[21] - The overall market sentiment indicates cautious optimism, with potential for price recovery in the coming months[20]