农林牧渔行业投资策略月报：旺季猪价或触底反弹，饲料行业复苏在路上

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy," indicating an expectation that stock performance will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [86]. Core Viewpoints - The average price of live pigs in December 2024 is 15.7 CNY/kg, down 4.8% month-on-month but up 8.8% year-on-year. The industry's profitability continues to decline, with expectations for a rebound in pig prices before the Spring Festival [180][106]. - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing a recovery, driven by increased demand from the livestock sector. The prices of major raw materials have continued to decline, which may positively impact profitability [181]. - The pet food market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 158.5 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase. Attention is drawn to domestic leading brands and their market share growth [64]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In December 2024, the agricultural and forestry sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.2 percentage points, with a decline of 0.4% in the sector compared to a 2.8% increase in the index [22][101]. Livestock Breeding - The average price of live pigs decreased by 5.0% in December 2024, while chicken prices fell by 1.0%. The industry is expected to see a rebound in prices as the peak slaughter period passes [124][180]. Bulk Raw Materials - The spot price of corn in December 2024 is approximately 2143 CNY/ton, down 3.3% month-on-month and down 17.9% year-on-year. The soybean meal price is around 2940 CNY/ton, down 4.5% month-on-month and down 26.1% year-on-year [40][154]. Agricultural Products Processing - The price of white sugar decreased by 1.9% in December 2024, while the price of natural rubber increased by 1.8% [140][161]. Aquatic Products - The price of shrimp increased by 2.5% in December 2024, while the average price of sea cucumbers rose by 30.8% [54][55]. Pet Food - In November 2024, the export volume of pet food increased by 0.3% month-on-month and by 13.9% year-on-year. The total export value for the first 11 months of 2024 reached 9.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [34][167]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the livestock sector, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, as well as companies in the pet food sector like Guai Bao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [180][64].