重识建材之七：玻纤风电纱供需初探

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the glass fiber industry, specifically for companies involved in wind power applications [1]. Core Insights - The wind power sector is expected to drive significant growth in glass fiber demand, with a projected 30% increase in demand for glass fiber in the wind power sector by 2025 compared to 2024 [5][48]. - The report highlights the high technical and certification barriers in the production of wind power glass fiber, leading to a concentrated supply and limited short-term capacity expansion [18][42]. - The long-term contracts for wind power glass fiber are expected to support profitability improvements for glass fiber companies in 2025, with price increases of 15%-20% anticipated [6][14]. Summary by Sections Wind Power Demand - Wind power is a major downstream application for glass fiber, with significant growth expected due to the increasing scale of wind turbine installations and the trend towards larger blades [5][21]. - The report cites that in 2023, wind power accounted for 10% of global glass fiber applications and 14% in China, indicating its importance in the market [5][50]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the average power of wind turbines sold by a major company increased from 3.1 MW to 5.7 MW from 2021 to the first half of 2024, while the cost per watt decreased significantly [5][50]. - The report predicts that global wind power installations will reach 148 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, driven by ongoing energy transition goals in Europe and the U.S. [17][29]. Price and Profitability - Current prices for high modulus and epoxy wind power glass fibers are significantly higher than standard direct winding fibers, with increases of 27.8% compared to early 2024, yet still at historically low levels [6][38]. - The report quantifies the potential profit contribution from increased sales of wind power glass fiber, estimating a profit increase of 4.2 billion CNY for China Jushi and 1.8 billion CNY for Zhongcai Technology in 2025 [14][7]. Supply Chain and Production Barriers - The production of wind power glass fiber is characterized by high technical barriers and a concentrated supply base, with only a few leading companies capable of meeting the stringent quality certifications required by turbine manufacturers [18][42]. - The report indicates that as of November 2024, major companies have capacities of 68,000 tons, 38,000 tons, and 32,000 tons for wind power glass fiber, with limited new capacity expected in the short term [18][42]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the combination of increasing installation scales and the trend towards larger turbine blades will significantly boost the demand for high-performance glass fiber in the wind power sector [48][50]. - It also notes that the global supply chain for wind power glass fiber is expected to benefit from potential supply gaps in Europe starting in 2025, favoring companies with overseas production capabilities [47].