2025电力年度策略报告：安徽省电力供需分析与展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [30]. Core Insights - The power supply-demand tension is gradually easing nationwide, with the East China region still experiencing tight supply-demand conditions. The construction of supportive power sources is accelerating, and a significant increase in coal-fired power generation capacity is expected to alleviate supply issues by 2026 [30][43]. - In Anhui province, electricity demand is projected to continue growing, driven by high-tech manufacturing sectors such as computers, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles. The province's electricity consumption has consistently reached new highs, supported by government policies ensuring supply security [30][41]. - The report highlights that Anhui's power supply is primarily reliant on coal-fired generation, with a significant concentration of installed capacity among major state-owned enterprises. The ongoing construction of coal-fired power projects is expected to peak in 2026, addressing the anticipated power supply gap [30][40]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Supply-Demand Analysis - The report indicates that Anhui province will face a power supply gap of approximately 10 million kilowatts from 2024 to 2025, which is expected to persist until mid-2026. Continuous approval and construction of coal-fired projects will be necessary to maintain balance beyond 2027 [32][41]. - The overall electricity consumption in Anhui is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase in total electricity consumption from 321.4 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023 to 440.6 billion kilowatt-hours by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% [8][30]. Section 2: Key Power Projects and Developments - Major power projects in Anhui include the construction of new coal-fired plants, with significant projects expected to come online by 2026. The report lists several projects, including the Chizhou Phase II and Anqing Phase III, which are anticipated to contribute to the province's power generation capacity [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "External Power Supply to Anhui" initiative, which aims to enhance the province's power supply capacity through high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission projects, with the Shaanxi-Anhui HVDC project expected to be operational by the second half of 2026 [3][40]. Section 3: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the Anhui power sector, particularly companies with strong coal supply agreements and those involved in the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The focus on coal-fired generation is expected to provide stable returns amid rising electricity demand [9][12]. - The analysis suggests that companies like Huaihe Energy and Anhui Energy Group are well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing developments in the power sector, given their strategic coal supply arrangements and operational efficiencies [12][14].