Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - Key companies include: (1) Stable profit and high dividend coal companies: Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua (A, H); (2) Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential: Yanzhou Coal Mining (A, H), Xinji Energy, and China Coal Energy (A, H); (3) Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low PB: Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coal International, Jinkong Coal, Huayang Co., and Guanghui Energy [3][137] Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has stabilized and rebounded, with the sector's valuation and dividend yield showing advantages [21][123] - As of December 27, the CCI 5500 kcal thermal coal price was reported at 765 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 11 CNY/ton [33] - The average PB of the coal industry is approximately 1.5 times, with an average ROE of about 8.5% for the first three quarters [134] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic coal production in November was 432.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with the production in major regions showing mixed results [116][135] - The demand for thermal coal is expected to improve as temperatures drop, leading to increased coal consumption for heating [93][134] - The inventory of coal at major ports has decreased, indicating a potential for price stabilization [111][134] Price Trends - The price of coking coal has generally declined, with the main production areas experiencing price drops [70][102] - The price of metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1680 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 CNY/ton [103] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policies emphasize the importance of market value management for state-owned enterprises, which may impact coal companies' operational strategies [112][126]
煤炭行业周报（2024年第51期）：动力煤价企稳回升，板块估值股息具备优势
GF SECURITIES·2024-12-30 08:21