艾罗能源：新产品+新市场，老牌户储企业打开第二成长曲线

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 78.29 yuan, representing a significant upside from the current price of 48.24 yuan [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the residential energy storage market, but its performance has been under pressure due to changes in European demand [12] - The company is expanding into new product lines (commercial & industrial storage, microinverters, large-scale storage) and new markets (Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America) to drive its second growth curve [13] - Revenue is expected to decline 18.2% in 2024 but rebound with 30% and 22.8% growth in 2025 and 2026 respectively [14] Financial Performance - Revenue declined 3% YoY in 2023 to 4.47 billion yuan, with a further 18.2% drop expected in 2024 [1][14] - Net profit attributable to parent company dropped 6.12% in 2023 and is expected to plunge 75.67% in 2024 before rebounding strongly in 2025-2026 [1][14] - Gross margin has been volatile, peaking at 41.53% in 2020 before declining to 36.38% in 2021 and recovering to 39.90% in 2023 [79] Product Lines - Residential storage inverters: Revenue grew from 81 million yuan in 2019 to 1.28 billion yuan in 2022 before declining to 1.09 billion yuan in 2023 [47] - Storage batteries: Revenue surged from 94 million yuan in 2019 to 2.5 billion yuan in 2022, with gross margins stable around 33-35% [54] - Grid-tied inverters: Revenue grew from 212 million yuan in 2019 to 700 million yuan in 2023, with gross margins improving from 31.62% to 36.23% [6] Market Expansion - Europe remains the dominant market, accounting for 93.04% of H1 2023 revenue, but the company is actively expanding in Asia, Africa and Latin America [78][90] - In Europe, residential storage demand is slowing while commercial & industrial and large-scale storage markets are growing rapidly [106][115] - The company has launched new products tailored for emerging markets, including low-voltage residential storage systems compatible with lead-acid batteries [93] R&D and Innovation - The company has strong R&D capabilities, with 6.15% of revenue invested in R&D in 2023 [81] - Key R&D projects include new commercial storage systems, microinverters, and large-scale storage solutions [65][71][72] - The company is investing 1.05 billion yuan in a new large-scale storage and smart energy system R&D and production facility [103] Valuation - The report uses a PEG valuation method, assigning a PEG ratio of 0.67 based on comparable companies [99] - This implies a 2024 target PE of 48.3x, higher than the industry average of 26.28x, reflecting growth potential from new products and markets [99][128] Industry Trends - European residential storage installations are expected to decline 26% in 2024, while commercial & industrial and large-scale storage markets are growing rapidly [106][115] - In Asia, Africa and Latin America, falling PV costs and weak grid infrastructure are driving demand for distributed solar and storage solutions [92][123] - Government support and sovereign wealth funds are accelerating renewable energy adoption in markets like Saudi Arabia [118]