汽车行业：24年数据点评系列十八：重卡行业11月国内销量同比转正，报废税冲击下出口仍保持同比高增

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation that stock performance will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [25]. Core Insights - The heavy truck industry is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a rebound in replacement rates expected to provide sufficient upward elasticity for domestic sales. Exports continue to maintain high growth, and the overseas market space is vast. Given the current low valuations of truck stocks, future profits are anticipated to follow sales to new highs, suggesting that the investment value of truck stocks has not been fully realized [5][25]. Summary by Sections Sales - In November, heavy truck wholesale, terminal, and export volumes changed by -3.7%, +16.7%, and -4.7% year-on-year, respectively. The total wholesale volume for heavy trucks in November was 68,000 units, down 3.7% year-on-year but up 3.2% month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to November, the total wholesale volume was 818,000 units, down 4.8% year-on-year [49][51]. Inventory - Inventory levels are reported to be healthy, with total inventory in November decreasing both year-on-year and month-on-month. As of the end of November, the total inventory for the heavy truck industry was 127,000 units, down 28,000 units year-on-year and down 100 units month-on-month [25][49]. Demand - Since the beginning of the year, logistics demand has shown signs of recovery. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of road freight turnover from January to November was 3.3%, with a month-on-month growth rate of 4.3% in November [25][49]. Market Share - From January to November 2024, the cumulative wholesale market share of FAW Group and Heavy Truck Group increased year-on-year by 1.1 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, reaching 21.3% and 26.3%, respectively. The cumulative export market share of FAW Group, Heavy Truck Group, and Dongfeng Group also saw increases of 4.6 percentage points, 1.3 percentage points, and 2.9 percentage points, reaching 19.7%, 21.6%, and 8.9%, respectively [25][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in truck manufacturers with strong market shares and export performance, including China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, and FAW Liberation. For components, it suggests investing in Weichai Power, which leads in internationalization, and Weifu High-Technology, which has low valuations and stable profitability and dividends [5][25].