通货膨胀和财政约束下欧盟包容性增长之路（第一章）（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak outlook for the EU in the near term, with downside risks dominating the economic landscape [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that many EU member states have faced reform delays, which could hinder long-term growth and fiscal consolidation efforts [3][4]. - The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is available until the end of 2026, with expected absorption rates of RRF grants projected to reach 0.4% of GDP in 2024 and 0.5% in 2025 [3]. - Despite some progress in reforms, challenges remain in areas such as digitalization, public pension sustainability, and labor force participation [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of managing the green transition, with both public and private investments being crucial for a sustainable economy [4][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The EU's economic outlook remains weak, with potential growth rates revised down for several member states due to various challenges, including the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine [3][8]. - Specific potential growth estimates include Bulgaria at 2.3%, Croatia at 2.9%, Poland at 2.4%, and Romania at 2.4% [3]. Policy Challenges - The implementation of the revised Economic Governance Framework will test policymakers' ability to balance fiscal sustainability with growth [4]. - The report discusses the need for concrete expenditure and revenue measures to meet fiscal consolidation targets while addressing pressures from defense spending and climate change [4]. Social Safety Nets - Effective social safety nets are crucial for protecting low-income households from rising food and energy costs amid inflationary pressures [11]. - The report outlines various policy measures adopted by EU countries, such as food vouchers and price caps, to alleviate inflationary pressures on households [11][12]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has shown resilience, but recovery has been uneven, particularly affecting less educated individuals who continue to struggle with employment levels [35][36]. - Employment growth has been concentrated among highly educated workers, highlighting a polarization in job opportunities [35][36].