2025年宏观经济展望：积极有为，乘风破浪

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown in growth, remaining above potential growth at no less than 2%[118] - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods is projected to reach 30%-60%, potentially reducing China's GDP by 0.4%-1.6%[118] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to stop interest rate cuts after one more reduction, with core PCE inflation expected to exceed 3%[118] - The short-term neutral interest rate is anticipated to rise due to fiscal spending, reducing the constraint of monetary policy[118] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales for top 100 developers saw a year-on-year growth rate increase from -37.7% in September to 7.1% in October, but fell back to -6.9% in November[8] - The current environment differs from 2015, as merely lowering down payment ratios and interest rates may not suffice to stimulate demand[8] Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index indicates fluctuating consumer willingness to spend, with significant variations observed from January 2021 to January 2024[2] Government Revenue and Expenditure - Nationwide government fund revenue and expenditure have shown cumulative year-on-year percentage changes, indicating fiscal pressures[5] Inflation and Economic Risks - The potential for stagflation exists if trade tensions and immigration policy tighten, leading to lower economic growth and rising inflation[12] - The risk of inflation exceeding 4% in the long term is heightened by proposed tariffs and immigration policies[118] Investment Trends - The investment landscape is expected to improve with the issuance of special government bonds, estimated at 1 trillion yuan to stabilize growth[114] - Real estate investment is projected to see a narrowing decline, with land transaction volumes and premium rates showing signs of recovery[82]