1月策略观点：切换变盘，杠铃收敛

Group 1 - The report highlights concerns about "re-inflation" due to high tariffs on imports in the US, which may lead to a slowdown in interest rate cuts. However, domestic policies are expected to support consumption and improve internal demand, ultimately boosting stock market earnings [2][3] - In a context of weakening investor sentiment, the focus shifts from "concept themes" to "industry themes," emphasizing core catalysts within the industrial chain such as AI applications and robotics [3] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative, with a strong execution of policies expected in Q1 2025 [5][6] Group 2 - The report notes a seasonal weakness in December, with a potential improvement in January. Export orders decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 44.2, while procurement volume fell by 2.3 percentage points. However, procurement prices only dropped by 0.4 percentage points, and sales prices increased by 1.3 percentage points, indicating reduced pressure on profit margins [9] - The valuation and cost-effectiveness of the market are deemed moderate, with the risk premium of the CSI 300 index analyzed over the past decade [11][12] Group 3 - The report discusses changes in the microstructure of the market, indicating a slight decline in the overall A-share market structure, with notable shifts in the distribution of shares held by large shareholders [14][15] - It also reviews the historical spring market movements since 2010, identifying key factors that have driven market behavior during this period [16][17] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies in state-owned enterprises, noting that the proportion of dividends received by residents has steadily increased from below 8% to over 10% since 2017, with further room for growth [33][31] - It discusses the significance of mixed-ownership reform in state-owned enterprises, highlighting the potential for mergers and acquisitions to enhance value and leverage quality social capital [36][41]