东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241231

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key policy direction for 2025, particularly in the context of real estate drag and external uncertainties [1] - The report highlights the potential impact of U.S. tariffs and tax cuts on inflation uncertainty, which may affect interest rate cuts [1] - The central economic work conference has identified expanding domestic demand and preventing real estate risks as critical components of risk prevention for 2025 [1] Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is advised to focus on supply-side optimization and mergers, benefiting leading and excellent companies [4] - The construction sector is expected to see improved demand elasticity influenced by central government fiscal efforts, with state-owned enterprises benefiting significantly from policies [4] - The report suggests that the transportation sector is experiencing a price competition phase, with a focus on supply-demand marginal improvements and policy adjustments [11][23] Company Insights - Zhonghe Technology is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of a 71.97% stake in Zhonghe Xiyi through a share issuance [7] - Changan Automobile is projected to achieve a total scale of over 3 million vehicles in 2025, with a market share exceeding 9.4% and a procurement amount of 148.7 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [8] - The report indicates that the logistics sector, particularly leading companies like Zhongtong and YTO, are expected to maintain stable profitability during downturns due to their advantages in franchisee stability [12] Market Trends - The report notes that the retail and social services sectors are experiencing a recovery in consumer spending, with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to November 2024 [46] - The report identifies a shift towards "interest consumption," which is expected to drive growth in sectors like toys and beauty products, benefiting companies that can leverage IP and engage younger consumers [66][89] - The metal industry is anticipated to see a strong cycle driven by liquidity changes and inventory cycles, with a focus on industrial metals and new materials [16][29]