Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is a key focus of national strategic development, receiving significant policy and financial support, particularly through the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [2][11] - As of November 30, 2024, the total market capitalization of the SW semiconductor index reached 44,965 billion, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board accounting for 30,109 billion, representing 67% of the total [2][3] - SMIC has become the third-largest foundry globally as of Q1 2024, with a market share of approximately 6% [6][7] - The return of the Kirin chip has led to a 211% year-on-year increase in sales of Huawei's mobile processor chips in Q3 2024 [9] - The semiconductor sector's gross margin has rebounded, with 62 companies reporting their highest quarterly revenue in 2024, accounting for 42% of the total [11][14] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Overview - The semiconductor industry is supported by national policies and funding, with significant listings on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board since its establishment in 2019 [2][3] - As of November 30, 2024, 124 out of 160 companies in the SW semiconductor index were listed after 2019, indicating a trend towards newer companies entering the market [2] Company Performance - SMIC's capacity utilization rate was 90.4% in Q3 2024, significantly higher than the global average of 70% [6] - The overall gross margin for the semiconductor sector reached 26% in Q3 2024, comparable to pre-chip shortage levels in 2020 [14] - The number of companies achieving their highest quarterly revenue has increased significantly, indicating a recovery in the sector [11][14] Mergers and Acquisitions - The report highlights that mergers and acquisitions have played a crucial role in increasing market concentration in the semiconductor industry, with the top 50 companies holding 89% of the market share as of 2021 [17][19] - Recent policy support for mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor sector has led to an increase in activity, with several notable transactions reported [25][28] Investment Trends - In Q3 2024, passive funds surpassed active funds in terms of market value held, indicating a shift in investment strategies within the semiconductor sector [29][35] - The total market capitalization of semiconductor-related ETFs has seen significant growth, reflecting increased investor interest [30][37]
电子行业2025年年度投资策略：AI革新人机交互，智能终端百舸争流，行业迈入估值扩张大年
国信证券·2024-12-31 00:33