2025年社会服务行业投资策略报告：稳舵定锚行致远 奋楫扬帆谱新篇

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the social services industry, indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the broader market by more than 10% over the next six months [197] Core Views - The social services industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic tourism, with key holiday periods in 2024 showing tourism revenues surpassing 2019 levels [196] - The hotel industry is experiencing a trend of consolidation, with star-rated hotels decreasing by 27% since early 2019, while chain hotels have expanded, increasing the industry's chain rate to 40.95% in 2023 [3][4] - The catering industry is rapidly expanding its chain operations, with the number of chain catering outlets reaching 64,693 in 2023, a 35.82% increase from the previous year, and total revenue growing by 38.85% to 323.9 billion RMB [6] Industry Trends Tourism - Domestic tourism has shown robust recovery, with the 2024 National Day holiday seeing 765 million domestic trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, and total tourism spending reaching 700.817 billion RMB, up 6.3% from the previous year [129] - Inbound tourism is benefiting from visa facilitation policies, with 17.446 million foreign visitors entering China under visa-free policies in the first 11 months of 2024, a 123.3% increase year-on-year [17] Hotels - The hotel industry is seeing a recovery in leisure travel demand, with domestic tourism trips reaching 4.237 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a 15.32% increase year-on-year, and tourism revenue growing by 17.89% to 4.35 trillion RMB [199] - Major hotel chains like Home Inns and Jinjiang have seen revenue per available room (RevPAR) recover to 2019 levels by Q3 2024, driven by a 10% increase in average daily rates, though occupancy rates have not fully recovered [29] Catering - The chain catering market is growing rapidly, with the chain rate increasing from 12% in 2018 to 21% in 2023, indicating significant penetration and market share growth for chain brands [6] - Catering brands are increasingly expanding overseas, with notable examples like Haidilao, which has grown its overseas revenue from $230 million in 2020 to$690 million in 2023, representing a 45.81% CAGR [141] Ice and Snow Tourism - The ice and snow tourism industry is booming, with the market size growing from 270 billion RMB in 2015 to 890 billion RMB in 2023, and is expected to surpass 1 trillion RMB by 2025 [119] - Key players in the ice and snow tourism sector, such as Changbai Mountain and Dalian Sun Asia, have reported strong revenue growth in 2024, with increases of 19.55% and 7.74% respectively [131]