Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail industry as of December 30, 2024 [7]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is still in a recovery phase, with a focus on rational spending. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales from January to November 2024 is +3.5%, a slowdown of 3.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023. Retail sales of gold and jewelry and cosmetics have decreased by -3.3% and -1.3% respectively [13][17]. - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority, aiming to stimulate consumption through various measures, including increasing residents' income and creating new consumption growth points [18][19]. - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands in the cosmetics sector, with significant growth in sales during promotional events like "Double 11," where overall sales increased by +26.6% [7][56]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - The overall economy is expected to maintain steady growth, with a year-on-year increase in per capita disposable income of +4.9% in Q3 2024. However, the social retail sales growth has slowed down due to insufficient domestic demand [13][17]. - The government aims to stimulate consumption by enhancing income for low- and middle-income groups and implementing policies to support new consumption growth points, particularly in smart home products, cultural tourism, and domestic brands [18][19]. Cosmetics Sector - The cosmetics market is experiencing fluctuations, but there is potential for future demand recovery. The cumulative retail sales of cosmetics from January to November 2024 show a year-on-year increase of +1.3% [7][56]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with younger consumers showing a higher acceptance of these products. The report suggests focusing on leading domestic cosmetic companies with strong R&D and marketing capabilities [7][56]. Gold and Jewelry Sector - The rapid increase in gold prices has suppressed consumer demand for gold jewelry, leading to a slowdown in store expansion among leading companies. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product design and operational capabilities, as well as those offering high dividends [7][52]. - The report notes that the performance of leading gold and jewelry companies has varied, with some achieving positive growth while others face challenges due to rising gold prices [52].
2025年商贸零售行业投资策略报告：困境中蓄势，新章春来待启
万联证券·2024-12-31 01:59