煤炭长协定价机制解析：为何港口煤价770元/吨关口备受关注？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [4]. Core Insights - The coal price at the port level has drawn significant attention as it fell below 770 RMB/ton, which is closely related to the long-term pricing mechanism of coal contracts. This drop raises concerns about potential price adjustments for companies relying on pit contracts, impacting their earnings stability. However, the report suggests that the overall impact on companies with stable high dividends is manageable [3][14]. Summary by Sections Recent Tracking - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.55%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 percentage points, ranking 16th out of 32 industries. As of December 27, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 758 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton week-on-week, but prices began to stabilize towards the end of the week. The report anticipates a potential rebound in coal prices due to reduced production intensity and strong demand for inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][44]. Pricing Mechanism Analysis - The report discusses the significance of the 770 RMB/ton threshold in relation to the long-term pricing mechanism for coal contracts. When the port coal price drops below this level, it indicates a risk of price adjustments for companies primarily using pit contracts, which could affect their earnings stability. The report projects that the coal price center may remain at or above 770 RMB/ton in 2025, suggesting that short-term price drops do not significantly impact the dividend stock allocation value [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a marginal allocation strategy for stock selection, focusing on: 1. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy (A+H) 2. Transitioning targets: Electric Power Investment Energy, Xinji Energy, and Huaihe Energy 3. High-risk, high-reward coking coal targets: Huaibei Mining [3].