Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" indicating a positive outlook on the industry fundamentals relative to the market benchmark index over the next 12 months [18][20]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of the "Doubao" model, with significant user demand growth, as evidenced by a 33-fold increase in daily token usage to over 4 trillion and a monthly active user count nearing 60 million, making it the second-largest globally after OpenAI's ChatGPT [36][60]. - The report highlights the importance of hardware investment and the continuous expansion of computing power infrastructure, with ByteDance planning to invest 80 billion yuan in 2024, slightly below the combined capital expenditures of BAT companies [11][43]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the copper interconnection and optical communication sectors, suggesting that both technologies will coexist and drive industry growth [3][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the trend of copper interconnection for short-distance communication, highlighting its low power consumption and cost-effectiveness, with companies like Google and Dojo adopting DAC&AEC solutions [3][29]. - Optical communication is noted for its long-distance transmission capabilities, maintaining signal quality and resistance to electromagnetic interference, indicating a complementary relationship with copper interconnection [3][29]. Hardware Investment - ByteDance's capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 80 billion yuan, with plans for further expansion in 2025, showcasing flexibility in investment due to its non-public status [11][43]. - The establishment of computing power centers in Inner Mongolia and plans for a regional AI center in Malaysia with an investment of 10 billion ringgit (approximately 2.1 billion USD) reflect a global strategy for infrastructure development [11][43]. Market Demand and Product Development - The report notes the significant demand for AI/ML backend networks, predicting the RDMA market size to grow from 6 billion USD in 2023 to 22 billion USD by 2028, which will drive the expansion of Ethernet switches [3][29]. - New product launches in the AI sector, including smart devices and upgraded models, are expected to open new market opportunities, particularly in the AI-enabled smart terminal market [21][58]. Competitive Landscape - The report acknowledges the competitive pressures from both domestic and international players, emphasizing the need for strong R&D and innovation capabilities to keep pace with rapid technological advancements [15].
通信事件点评:豆包题材持续发酵,重视字节产业链投资机会
Shanghai Securities·2024-12-31 02:26