资金流向和中短线指标体系跟踪（三）：偏股基金新发强度提升，ETF资金净流入

Macro Liquidity and Funding Costs - The central bank's open market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 798.2 billion yuan, indicating a marginal tightening of macro liquidity [20][21] - Money market rates rose due to year-end funding gaps, with R007 and DR007 increasing by 38.6bp and 23.1bp respectively [75] - Long-term bond yields fell to near 5-year lows, with 10-year Treasury yields dropping by 0.89bp [75] - The USD/CNY exchange rate remained flat at 7.30, while the China-US 10-year yield spread widened to -292.71bp [75] Micro Liquidity and A-share Market Capital Flows - Trackable A-share funds saw a net inflow of 3.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous period's net outflow of 6 billion yuan [13][26] - Total capital supply (new equity fund issuance + margin financing + ETF subscriptions) reached 9.8 billion yuan, up 7.2 billion yuan from the previous period [13][26] - Capital demand (IPO + private placements + major shareholder reductions) decreased by 2.5 billion yuan to 6.1 billion yuan [26][85] - A-share trading volume declined, with daily average turnover dropping by 143.9 billion yuan to 1.38 trillion yuan [77][82] Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Equity ETFs saw a net inflow of 3.27 billion yuan, reversing the previous period's outflow [39] - CSI A500 ETFs maintained strong inflows (13.1 billion yuan), while STAR Market ETFs continued outflows (7.74 billion yuan) [30][38] - Leverage funds turned net sellers, with margin financing outflows reaching 8.56 billion yuan, mainly reducing positions in computers and machinery [88] - Northbound trading activity declined, with daily average turnover falling by 29.1 billion yuan to 150.9 billion yuan [106] Market Indicators and Style Rotation - The A-share size differentiation index showed signs of convergence, with small-cap turnover heat likely to cool further (probability >95%) [6] - The A-share and commodity divergence index retreated from historical highs, indicating synchronized performance between equities and commodities [50] - The micro-cap vs. dividend rotation indicator returned to neutral levels, suggesting balanced performance between the two styles [59] - The A-share and Hong Kong market divergence index declined, reflecting converging performance between the two markets [44]